The Anthopocene Is Here to Stay
A new study by AWG scientists shows that Earth history and the climate state of our planet have been fundamentally shifted by human impacts.
Ralf Vetterle SD-Pictures | Pixabay
Since the Great Acceleration in the mid-20th century, the world has changed irreversibly. We must face the challenge of preventing further global warming and degradation – and it is time to act now.
We are not living on the same planet as our grandparents – or any of our ancestors, back to the start of recorded history. That is the message of the proposed Anthropocene epoch in which, from human impacts that have become overwhelming since the mid-20th century, the Earth is now hotter, more biologically degraded and polluted. And so, it has become less habitable for both humans and more-than-human beings.
But is this just a blip? – A brief planetary stumble from which the Earth will soon bounce back to resume its former condition, that of the Holocene Epoch that reigned and nurtured human civilization for more than 11 millennia after the ice last receded?
A new analysis published in Global and Planetary Change shows that the course of Earth history has been fundamentally shifted, not least as regards its climate state. The study was led by Colin Summerhayes of the Scott Polar Research Institute at the University of Cambridge, in collaboration with colleagues of the Anthropocene Working Group (AWG) including VAN co-founder Michael Wagreich.
Greenhouse gas emissions have soared since the mid-20th century, to our knowledge faster than at any time in Earth history. Carbon dioxide levels are now higher than at any time in the last three million years, and if one factors in the effect of methane, also now sky-rocketing, the nearest comparison may be 15 million years ago, in the warm Miocene Epoch. The Earth’s resulting energy imbalance (where more heat is gained than lost by the planet) is now more than a watt each square metre. It has led to the Earth now being about 1.5° celsius warmer than in pre-industrial times, fuelling extreme weather that now continually hits the headlines. Polar ice is melting, sea levels are rising, and ecosystems worldwide are being devastated – and the energy imbalance means that more heat is in the pipeline.
Jitian Pan
Modelling the Earth’s perturbed climate into the far future means that humanity’s energy binge has pushed back Earth’s next Ice Age to at least 50,000 years in the future – and with more greenhouse gas emissions that figure increases to half a million years. These are truly (at least) epoch-scale changes, and emphasize the reality of the Anthropocene as a new force in planetary time.
What to do? Clearly, human societies must adapt to the new conditions, and prepare for the long haul. It would be prudent, too, to quickly and severely restrict further greenhouse gas emissions, so the Earth does not become the kind of extreme hothouse which triggered mass extinctions in the geological past. Human civilization really is at stake, and every tenth of a degree does count.
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Study: Summerhayes, C.P. et al. 2024. The future extent of the Anthropocene epoch: A synthesis. Global and Planetary Change 242:104568. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818124002157.
APA Report on the new publication (in German): https://science.apa.at/power-search/17108600795007016827